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SPM Best Ideas - Offshore

 

By Sithembile Bopela, Chantal Marx, Pritu Makan, Zimele Mbanjwa, Motheo Tlhagale, Khumbulani Kunene

UBER (UBER US)

Uber Technologies, Inc. is a global technology platform company that connects consumers, drivers, merchants, shippers and carriers through digital mobility, delivery and logistics services. Operating in more than 70 countries, Uber leverages its proprietary technology, large network and marketplace data to facilitate ridesharing, car rentals, micromobility and public transport services through its Mobility segment; food, grocery, alcohol and retail delivery through its Delivery segment (including Uber Eats and Uber Direct); and digital freight brokerage, transportation management and logistics solutions through its Freight segment.

    • The company connects hundreds of millions of consumers, drivers, merchants, shippers and carriers across more than 15 000 cities worldwide, using advanced marketplace, routing and payments technology to efficiently match supply and demand.
    • The company further enhances engagement through its Uber One subscription programme, which surpassed 50 million members in 1Q26 and accounts for more than 50% of Mobility and Delivery gross bookings. Customers using both Mobility and Delivery generate over three times the gross bookings and profitability of single-service users, thus supporting stronger retention and monetisation.
    • Multiple new growth pillars are emerging beyond ride-hailing. Uber has expanded into hotel bookings, parking, drone delivery, autonomous delivery, chauffeur services and even urban air mobility through its partnership with Joby Aviation. This broadens monetisation opportunities while reducing dependence on traditional ride-hailing growth. Moreover, by offering benefits across rides, food delivery, groceries, travel and hotel bookings, Uber One encourages greater cross-platform usage.
    • Uber is also rapidly establishing itself as the leading global autonomous mobility platform through partnerships with nearly every major autonomous vehicle developer, including Waymo, WeRide, and Baidu. It plans to deploy 1 200 robotaxis in the Middle East, as well as up to 50 000 autonomous vehicles through its Rivian partnership and NVIDIA-powered robotaxi networks across 28 cities by 2028. Commercial operations are already active in multiple global markets.
    • By acting as the demand aggregation layer for robotaxis, Uber benefits from autonomous vehicle adoption regardless of the winning technology provider, with early deployments demonstrating higher utilisation, faster ETAs and the potential for a scalable, asset-light, higher-margin business model.
    • Strategic acquisitions are also accelerating growth in attractive verticals. Uber has announced acquisitions of Delivery Hero assets, Blacklane, SpotHero and Getir's delivery business in Türkiye, strengthening its position in food delivery, premium transportation, parking and international markets. These acquisitions expand Uber's addressable market, increase transaction volumes, and enhance network density across its platform. Combined with growth in higher-margin businesses such as advertising and subscriptions, the strategy should support margin expansion, strengthen competitive positioning and improve the scalability of Uber's ecosystem over time.

Over the last five years, the growth numbers have been astronomical. Between FY21 and FY25, Uber more than doubled platform activity, with trips increasing from 6.4 billion to 13.6 billion (+21% compounded annual growth rate [CAGR]), while gross bookings grew at a similar pace and revenue expanded at an even faster 31.4% CAGR. This scale has translated into a dramatic improvement in profitability and cash generation, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) increasing from a loss of $774 million to $8.7 billion and the margin expanding from -4.4% to 16.8%. At the same time, free cash flow swung from an outflow of $743 million in FY21 to an inflow of $9.8 billion in FY25. Further to this, management has demonstrated confidence in the sustainability of cash generation through its $20 billion share repurchase authorisation, with buybacks expected to remain a meaningful driver of per-share earnings growth.

Despite its stronger fundamentals, Uber continues to trade at a meaningful valuation discount to many platform peers (forward PE: 18 times vs peer average: 27 times) as well as its historical average. The company's expanding retail ecosystem, aggressive M&A activity and unmatched autonomous vehicle partner network is substantially increasing its addressable market while creating opportunities for higher-margin revenue streams over the next decade. Analyst forecasts have a 12-month upside price target ~47.5% above current prices.

On Holdings AG (ONON)

On Holding is a premium Swiss athletic sportswear company famous for its cushioned running shoes and high-performance gear. The brand was founded in 2010 by former professional athlete, Olivier Bernhard, and his friends, David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti. It is best known for its patented "CloudTec" sole technology, which are hollow rubber pods (clouds) on the bottom of the shoe. They compress when the runner lands to absorb impact, then lock firm to give runners a strong, springy push-off.

    • On Holding has grown rapidly, driven by direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales as well as high-end wholesale partnerships.
    • Still, the business is quite small in the broader sportswear category - international white space is substantial.
    • There is substantial scope outside of running and in apparel. Additionally, the company has begun taking the lifestyle segment more seriously, with promising collaborations elevating brand awareness.
    • The company positions itself as a premium brand and a specific focus on high full-price sales realisation will be supportive of margins.
    • DTC has been growing faster than Wholesale. Both have shown strong run-rates, but a strategic focus on DTC will also be margin enhancing.
    • The business is financially strong with no gearing and strong free cash flow.

Recent 1Q26 results were strong (with a 37% earnings beat). Sales were strong in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Asia Pacific regionally as well as better-than-anticipated growth in Apparel and Accessories. This is testament to execution on the business' geographic and product line diversification strategies. The market was disappointed by slower-than-anticipated growth in the United States (US) as well as slightly lower than expected DTC revenue growth. Additionally, the business announced certain management changes that spooked the market.

We think the market reaction was overblown and view the current price as a compelling entry point into a longer-term growth story that will counter the cyclicality inherent to the industry.

On Holding is trading on a forward PE of 19.7 times - a discount to peers, despite having a far superior medium- to long-term growth trajectory.

BYD (1211 HK)

BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a multinational high-tech company based in Shenzhen, China. Originally a battery manufacturer founded in 1995, it has grown into one of the world's largest producers of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and a global leader in battery technology and renewable energy solutions. BYD is a major player in the transition to clean energy and has expanded into over 100 countries and regions worldwide, selling millions of new energy vehicles (NEVs). In South Africa, BYD has firmly established a passenger vehicle market, offering models like the BYD Atto 3 electric SUV, the Dolphin hatchback, and the Seal sports sedan.

    • BYD maintains a leading position in China's NEV market, with an estimated 28% market share in 2025, underpinned by its vertically-integrated business model, manufacturing scale, battery expertise and cost advantages.
    • The global EV market is dominated by BYD and Tesla, with BYD recently overtaking Tesla as the industry's leading producer. While the two companies were broadly comparable in scale during 2024, BYD significantly extended its lead in 2025 as it accelerated production and expanded its global distribution network.
    • Overseas expansion remains BYD's primary growth driver, with international sales increasing strongly and management targeting 1.5 million overseas deliveries in 2026. This strategy is particularly attractive as overseas vehicles generate materially higher profits than domestic sales, while local manufacturing initiatives in Europe are expected to support growth and mitigate tariff risks.
    • Technology leadership continues to differentiate BYD from competitors, supported by the rollout of its second-generation Blade Battery (a lithium iron phosphate [LFP] battery recognised for its high safety standards and space efficiency), Flash Charging technology, and ongoing investment in next-generation battery technologies and hybrid platforms, reinforcing its long-term competitive advantage.

The stock is down ~11.5% year-to-date and ~30% over the past year, reflecting the 1Q26 earnings miss, domestic demand headwinds, and broader China EV sector de-rating. However, the bull case for the company rests on the overseas volume ramp-up, margin recovery as the export mix improves, and technology leadership which is expected to offset sustained domestic weakness amid heightened competition and geopolitical uncertainty. Margins faced pressure from ramp-up costs for new battery lines and inventory clear-outs of older models, but these headwinds should fade in the later part of the year while higher volumes drive operating leverage.

BYD is trading on a 12-month blended forward PE ratio of 16.2 times, which looks quite attractive compared to its historical average. The company trades at a premium to other automakers, but the premium has narrowed substantially in recent times. It also trades at a substantial discount to its closest rival in the global EV market, Tesla.

Netflix (NFLX US, NFETNC, NFETNQ)

Netflix is the world's leading subscription video-on-demand streaming platform, providing films, TV series, documentaries, live events and mobile gaming content to more than 325 million paying members across over 190 countries. Founded in 1997 as a DVD-by-mail rental business, the company pioneered the shift toward direct-to-consumer digital entertainment and has evolved into a vertically-integrated content platform that develops, produces, licenses and distributes content globally. Its scale, global reach and growing ecosystem of content, advertising and gaming offerings have established Netflix as one of the dominant players in the global media industry.

Netflix reports across four geographic operating segments: United States and Canada (UCAN), Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Latin America (LATAM) and Asia-Pacific (APAC). UCAN remains the group's highest average revenue per user market and largest contributor to profitability, while EMEA, LATAM and APAC provide the greatest long-term subscriber growth opportunity. The company's revenue model is increasingly diversified between traditional ad-free subscriptions, advertising-supported subscriptions, paid membership sharing, live event content, consumer product licensing and mobile gaming.

    • Netflix continues to demonstrate strong operating momentum. In 2Q26, revenue increased 13.4% year-on-year (y/y) to $12.56 billion (+12% in constant currencies; Bloomberg: $12.58 billion), driven by membership growth, pricing initiatives and rising advertising revenue. Revenue growth was broadly distributed across regions (UCAN: +10%, EMEA: +14%, LATAM: +21% and APAC: +16%).
    • Profitability and cash generation remain key strengths. Operating income increased 11% y/y to $4.19 billion (Bloomberg: $4.13 billion), while the operating margin reached 33.4%. Although free cash flow declined to $1.53 billion due to higher tax payments, this was primarily due to the Warner Bros. termination fee (one-off). Management continues to target ~$12.5 billion of free cash flow for FY26, an increase of 12% y/y.
    • Advertising is becoming an increasingly important growth driver. The advertising-supported tier now accounts for more than 60% of sign-ups in markets where it is offered, and management remains on track to generate ~$3 billion of advertising revenue in FY26. This creates a new high-margin revenue stream alongside the traditional subscription business.
    • Capital allocation remains highly shareholder friendly. During 2Q26, Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion of shares, the largest quarterly buyback in its history, while still retaining significant liquidity and $27.1 billion in remaining buyback authorisation capacity.
    • Key risks to the investment case include elevated content spending, foreign exchange exposure and slower subscriber growth in mature markets. Continued investment in original programming, live content and gaming requires significant capital commitments, while operating in more than 190 countries exposes the company to currency fluctuations. In addition, high penetration in North America means future growth will rely increasingly on pricing, advertising monetisation and international expansion.

Netflix represents a high-quality growth business that has successfully evolved beyond a pure subscription model into a diversified digital entertainment platform. The combination of global scale, expanding margins, strong cash generation, advertising growth, disciplined capital allocation and increasing monetisation opportunities provides a compelling long-term investment case. While near-term concerns remain around slowing revenue growth and content investment requirements, Netflix's competitive position, strong engagement levels and ability to leverage technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), support its ability to sustain attractive earnings growth over time.

On a forward PE multiple of 19.8 times, materially below its five-year historical average of 32 times, the valuation appears increasingly attractive relative to the quality of the franchise and its long-term growth prospects.

Constellation Energy (CEG)

Constellation Energy is the largest producer of carbon-free energy in the US, operating the largest nuclear fleet in the US, as well as hydroelectric, wind and solar generation assets. The company supplies electricity and energy solutions to utilities, commercial and industrial customers, government entities and large technology companies through long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs). Constellation has become one of the primary beneficiaries of rising AI and data centre power demand, with hyperscalers increasingly seeking reliable, 24-hour, carbon-free baseload power to support expanding computing needs.

    • Constellation sits at the centre of the emerging "nuclear renaissance" due to accelerating AI adoption. Nuclear generation remains one of the few scalable sources of 24/7 carbon-free electricity, positioning Constellation as a strategic supplier to large technology companies.
    • The company offers a high-quality earnings profile supported by contracted cash flows. Its fleet of nuclear, hydro, wind and solar assets provide stable generation economics while long-term customer agreements enhance revenue visibility. Constellation already counts leading corporates among its customer base, including Microsoft and Walmart.
    • Financial metrics remain supportive. The company delivered a strong performance in 1Q26, with adjusted operating earnings per share (EPS) increasing 28% y/y to $2.74 (Bloomberg: +18%). Revenue surged to $11.12 billion (>1 000% y/y), comfortably beating consensus forecasts of $8.6 billion, driven primarily by contributions from its Calpine acquisition, higher capacity revenues, and favourable power pricing.
    • Constellation continues to maintain a solid, investment-grade financial position with ample liquidity and strong cash flow visibility, forecasting $8.4 billion in cumulative free cash flow over the 2026-2027 period to support ongoing capital investments and shareholder returns while affirming FY26 EPS guidance of $11.00 to $12.00 (Bloomberg: $11.74).
    • The most significant risk remains regulatory uncertainty. Ongoing rulemaking by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and PJM Interconnection (the largest US regional electricity transmission organisation) regarding large-load connections, co-location arrangements and reliability-based pricing frameworks could delay or complicate future data-centre-related power contracts.
    • Additional risks include political, competitive and transaction-related factors. Potential changes to Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) nuclear tax credits could affect earnings, while large technology companies may increasingly pursue self-generation strategies.

Constellation represents a differentiated way to gain exposure to the infrastructure buildout required by AI and data centres. AI requires enormous amounts of reliable electricity, and Constellation's nuclear fleet provides one of the few scalable sources of carbon-free baseload power available today, creating a compelling long-term demand backdrop. Although regulatory uncertainty may create periods of volatility, the combination of stable contracted cash flows, favourable industry dynamics and growing power demand from hyperscalers supports a constructive medium- to long-term investment case.

The stock trades on a forward PE multiple of 19.9 times (five-year average: 23.6 times) and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 13 times (average: 13.7 times), which remains undemanding given the quality of the contracted earnings stream and the secular tailwind from AI-driven power demand.

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