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SPM Best Ideas - Local large-cap

 

By Sithembile Bopela, Chantal Marx, Pritu Makan, Zimele Mbanjwa, Motheo Tlhagale, Khumbulani Kunene

Canal + (CNP)

Canal+ is a global media and entertainment powerhouse, operating across more than 70 countries servicing over 42 million subscribers. The group's business model spans the entire audio-visual value chain, from content production (via StudioCanal) to aggregation, global distribution, and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) streaming. Canal+ is a market leader in Europe and following the full takeover of MultiChoice Group in late 2025, Canal+ has solidified its position as the Pay-TV leader in Africa, complementing its expanding footprint in the Asia-Pacific.

    • Canal+ is a global scale player who now has unique dual-market leadership in Europe and Africa, offering exposure to mature and high-growth markets.
    • The MultiChoice acquisition has unlocked significant synergies (current and future) and positions the group well to capture Africa's Pay-TV and streaming growth.
    • The African business (MultiChoice) has been struggling of late, but it is expected that the business will emerge leaner and stronger, leveraging its competitive advantage in sport and local content on the continent while simplifying its business structure and leveraging scale cost advantages.
    • Indeed, content leadership, super-aggregation, and local production underpin the business' competitive advantage across its geographies.
    • Recurring subscription revenue (~80% of total) provides long-term resilience and earnings visibility.
    • Strong cash generation and ultimately a robust balance sheet will support ongoing investment and shareholder returns. The standalone European business operates with high cash conversion, providing the liquidity needed to fund the African turnaround and manage the debt load.

In its recent 1Q26 trading update, the group reported 41% revenue growth to €2.2 billion, reflecting the inclusion of MultiChoice. The result was broadly flat (+1.8% y/y) on a like-for-like basis.

Indeed, the biggest risks facing the company remains the successful execution of the MultiChoice integration and turnaround of that business. Competition remains intense - particularly from well-capitalised global streaming players vying for broadband connected households.

The Canal + share price performance has been flat since listing on the JSE in June, and down about 5% year to date in London. The stock is trading on a forward PE of 8.9 times - a discount to peers as well as its average rating since listing in London in December 2024.

Naspers (NPN)

Naspers is a prominent multinational media group which has, over the last two decades, evolved from a traditional print media business in one country to a broad-based e-media company in multiple markets. Naspers' most notable investment is Prosus, which in turn has a large shareholding (23.2%) in Chinese internet giant, Tencent. Prosus is focused on e-commerce, food delivery, and classifieds. The company operates and invests in countries and markets with long-term growth potential.

    • The company's portfolio consists of more than 80 investments across more than 100 markets. Through Prosus, the company is focused on building meaningful businesses in the online classifieds, payments & fintech, food delivery, and education technology sectors in markets including Europe, India, and Brazil.
    • In South Africa, Naspers is one of the foremost investors in the technology sector and is committed to building its internet and e-commerce companies. These include Takealot, Mr D Food, Autotrader, Property24, and PayU, in addition to Media24, South Africa's leading print and digital media business.
    • The company trades at a deep discount to its underlying value. Management is actively taking steps to address the size of the discount.
    • Naspers' has reshaped its strategy to focus on exceptional performance in its ecosystems, concentrated in regions with the greatest growth potential, primarily Latin America, India and Europe. A core element of this strategy is leading in innovation to ensure that its ecosystems anticipate change.
    • We like the new portfolio management approach from management. Corporate action in the core portfolio can result in a step change in growth and returns that may see it begin to trade less like a "Tencent proxy".
    • We believe there are significant growth opportunities for several of the group's assets, as was the case previously with Tencent and Delivery Hero, which have since lived up to their potential.

Both Naspers and Prosus delivered a solid FY26 performance, which was cheered on by the market. The well guided for top-line development was driven by strong growth across key businesses, with a robust contribution from OLX and iFood, both of which delivered strong organic growth and meaningful margin expansion. The ecosystem overlap reinforced by the group's proprietary large commerce model (LCM) is yielding positive outcomes - iFood's AI assistant reached one million active users and Despegar's AI assistant is driving 3% of total sales. This remains supportive in driving demand across regions, and the momentum is expected to continue into the year ahead. Additionally, the improved profitability, coupled with higher dividends from Tencent, led to the strong double-digit growth in free cash flow and further solidified the robust liquidity position. The group's balance sheet is conservatively managed, remaining flexible and strong with more than $9.5 billion in cash on hand.

Naspers continues to offer good value at current values, and we expect a continued narrowing of their respective discounts as the companies buy back shares and unlock value from the unlisted investments.

Telkom SA SOC Limited (TKG)

Telkom is South Africa's largest integrated telecommunications and digital infrastructure provider. The group operates through three primary business units: Openserve, which owns and manages fixed-line and fibre network infrastructure; Telkom Consumer and Small Business, which provides mobile, fixed broadband, voice and digital services to consumers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); and BCX, which delivers information and communications technology (ICT), cloud, cybersecurity and digital solutions to enterprise and public-sector customers. Telkom presents a compelling investment case as a telecom operator that has successfully transitioned from a legacy fixed-line business into a data-led connectivity company with multiple growth engines.

    • Management has spent the past three years repositioning the business around a "OneTelkom" strategy which is aimed at integrating its Mobile, Openserve and BCX businesses into a single ecosystem by combining Mobile's scale, Openserve's fibre infrastructure and BCX's ICT capabilities. By combining these assets, the group can cross-sell products, improve customer acquisition economics, bundle fixed and mobile services, reduce duplication of infrastructure investment, and provide end-to-end connectivity and digital solutions.
    • As such, this has culminated into a multi-year cost reduction programme, shedding legacy fixed-voice headcount and infrastructure costs that were dragging on margins. While revenue has grown modestly from over the years (compound annual growth rate [CAGR] of ~1% since FY22), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) recovered strongly from a trough of R9.5 billion in FY23 to R12.5 billion in FY26, with the margin improving to 28.1% by FY26 (+5.6%). The cost-to-income ratio improved to 73% from 75.1% in FY25.
    • Capital allocation has also become more disciplined, and capex has declined at an annual rale 3.2% as the group tightened investment criteria and focused spending on high-return growth areas such as mobile, fibre and digital platforms.
    • The Mobile business continues to gain market share in a structurally growing data market, delivering market-leading service revenue growth of 6.8% in FY26, mobile data revenue growth of 10.5%, and expanding its subscriber base at ~11% per annum since FY22 to more than 25.7 million users. Openserve provides a second powerful growth platform, with years of fibre investment now translating into stronger monetisation, evidenced by overall revenue growth for the first time in nine years in FY26 (fibre-related revenue growth: +8.2%), homes connected increasing 17.7%, and an industry-leading connectivity rate of 53.1%. Together, these businesses are driving Telkom's transition towards a higher-quality, more defensible earnings base built on mobile and fibre connectivity.
    • BCX has operated in a difficult enterprise IT market with weak corporate spending and the ongoing migration away from legacy connectivity services weighing on revenue, which declined 7.6% in FY26. Despite this, the business delivered stable IT revenue growth in areas such as cybersecurity (+21.1%) and hardware and software (+5.6%), while disciplined cost management (FY26 Opex: -5.2%) helped maintain profitability. Under new leadership, management focused on improving scalability, margins and integration within the broader OneTelkom strategy.

Free cash flow represents perhaps the clearest evidence of Telkom's turnaround. Following negative free cash flow in FY22 and FY23, the group generated positive free cash flow from FY24 (R424 million) onwards, rising to R3.1 billion in FY26 from R2.8 billion in FY25 despite higher capex, while net debt fell 14.7%. This financial strength underpinned a revision to the dividend policy in FY26, with management increasing the payout ratio from 30% to 40%, to 40% to 60% of free cash flow. The combination of robust cash flow, low leverage and growing dividends provides scope for attractive shareholder returns while maintaining investment in mobile and fibre growth.

Valuation metrics seem compelling and supportive of our investment case. Telkom is currently trading at an attractive 2.7 times EV/EBITDA, a 48% discount to African Telecoms peers and a 9% discount to its own historical average. Moreover, consensus is bullish, with six of nine Bloomberg aggregated sell-side analysts holding a buy rating and price upside potential sitting at 25%. The forward dividend yield sits at ~5.5% and remains attractive relative to the sector median (~4%).

Clicks (CLS)

Clicks Group is a health and beauty focused retail and supply group. Through market-leading retail brands, Clicks, Sorbet, Claires and The Body Shop, the group has hundreds of stores across southern Africa. United Pharmaceutical Distributors (UPD) provides distribution capability for the group's healthcare strategy and has close to a third of market share in private pharmaceutical wholesale in South Africa.

    • We regard Clicks as a high-quality company operating in an attractive space. It has proven to be an excellent operator in the retail and distribution space and has been led by strong management. It is the market leader in healthcare retail in South Africa, operating in an essential industry that makes it a sound defensive play.
    • Clicks has a history of delivering consistent double-digit revenue growth and earnings growth driven by margin expansion and scale. Strong store rollouts and client loyalty have helped drive the top line and consistent gross margin expansion has been complimented by cost discipline and private label penetration.
    • The company has a history of strong cash generation that has enabled it to invest in the business. Solid and consistent free cash flow generation means it is also in a very comfortable financial position.
    • Clicks is regarded as a true "compounder" within the SA Inc space, delivering strong economic profits over time.

For the half year ended 28 February, the group delivered a resilient performance despite a constrained consumer environment and operational disruptions, with profitability supported by steady revenue growth across both its retail and distribution businesses. Retail operations benefitted from continued momentum in pharmacy, health, beauty and personal care categories, driving market share gains, while the distribution division produced a particularly strong result, supported by increased wholesale activity and solid growth across its customer base. Looking ahead, management expects continued earnings growth, supported by ongoing store and pharmacy expansion, the rollout of new store formats, and sustained investment in enhancing its retail footprint, supply-chain capabilities and technology infrastructure. These initiatives are intended to strengthen operational efficiency, support future growth opportunities and advance the group's medium-term store network expansion strategy.

At a forward PE of 13.9 times, the share trades at an attractive level relative to its long-term valuation range (five- year average: 25 times) and track record of consistent performance. Clicks therefore remains one of our preferred exposures within the South African retail universe.

Bidcorp (BID)

Bidcorp is a market-leading food service product distributor across several geographies including the United Kingdom (UK), Europe, Middle East, South America, the Asia-Pacific region, and South Africa. The company's business units operate across the food and ingredient manufacturing sectors, such as catering, hospitality, leisure, baked products, poultry, meat, seafood, and processing. The strategy is to grow organically in existing regions and acquisitively in new ones, with improvements in the customer mix and value add opportunities providing further upside potential.

    • The group has a well-diversified client base and businesses at different life cycles across developed and emerging geographies.
    • Bidcorp is not overly exposed to any specific client or category, boasting healthy diversification across the portfolio.
    • The company's dual strategy of targeting organic (primary focus) and acquisitive growth spreads risk, with the flexible balance sheet offering room for further bolt-on acquisitions, which are under consideration across the group both in geographic expansion opportunities as well as value-add product development.
    • The group's market leading position in many countries of operation provides some pricing power in a low-margin industry.

Consumer demand remains subdued as the cost-of-living crisis continues to impact spending in most countries, reflected in the group's slower-than-expected revenue development in the first four months of the 2026 calendar year. However, profitability was much better than what analysts had pencilled in. Europe and the UK performed well from a profitability perspective, partially offset by softness in Australasia and certain emerging markets, notably China and the Middle East, while strong performances were recorded in South Africa, Malaysia, and South America. Management expects to sustain its current growth trajectory through the end of the year and has allocated some of its excess cash to boost shareholder returns. Complimenting dividend payments with share buybacks over the last few months was also well received by the market.

Looking ahead, the company remains financially strong, with relatively low levels of gearing and a robust business model with solid diversification and defensive characteristics. Bidcorp is trading on a forward PE of 15.5 times, a discount to peers and below its long-term average rating. We maintain a favourable long-term view on the counter.

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