We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at $285. We recommend a stop-loss at $233.
Amazon.com, Inc. is one of the world's largest technology and e-commerce companies, with operations spanning across online retail, cloud computing, digital advertising, subscription services, logistics and artificial intelligence (AI). Through its diversified business model, led by Amazon Web Services (AWS), Prime and its global e-commerce platform, the company serves consumers and businesses in more than 100 countries. Amazon's scale, extensive logistics network and continued investment in innovation have established it as a leading player in the global technology and retail sectors.
The company benefits from a dominant competitive position across its various market exposures, supported by its customer-centric culture and extensive fulfilment network. Management is focused on long-term free cash flow growth and is reinvesting heavily in AI, technology infrastructure, logistics capabilities and new growth initiatives. These factors, together with strong customer engagement, expanding AWS demand, and continued investment in innovation, support a constructive medium-term investment case.
Technically, the share continues to exhibit a well-established long-term uptrend, characterised by a series of higher swing lows since 2023 (see the black arrows on the main chart). This pattern suggests that buyers have consistently accumulated the stock during periods of weakness, reinforcing underlying support levels and increasing the probability of further upside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicates fading downside momentum, suggesting that selling pressure is easing and that buying interest may be returning. In addition, the upward trajectory of the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator also supports our bullish view.
The share also remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Further support for the trade comes from favourable seasonal trends between July and October.
Investors can also gain exposure to Amazon through FNB's JSE listed ETN's, AMETNC (with rand exposure) and AMETNQ (without rand exposure).
Share Performance
Share Information
| Share Code | AMZN |
| Industry | Consumer Discretionary Distribution |
| Market Capital (USD) | 2662.92 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 8.83% |
| Return Year-to-date | 7.25% |
| Current Price (USD) | 247.55 |
| 52-Week High (USD) | 278.56 |
| 52-Week Low (USD) | 196.00 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price has been resilient so far this year and has largely outperformed its so-called 'Magnificent 7' peers. | |
Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 8.97 | 10.14 | 11.48 | 14.56 |
| Growth (%) | 13.08 | 13.23 | 26.80 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Growth (%) | - | - | - | |
| Forward PE (times) | 24.41 | 21.56 | 17.00 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | - | - | - | |
| Consensus expectations point to accelerating double-digit earnings growth in the near-to-medium term | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale
Technical Analysis
Long term fundamental view
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA US - Buy (Continue to hold) | 513.60 | 538.30 | +4.8% | Price action near the lower boundary of an ascending linear regression channel remains of interest. The stock continues to trade just above its 200-day SMA, while positive upside momentum supports the strategy. We maintain a target price of $570, and a trailing stop of $526. | 2 September 2026 |
| VMC US - Buy (Continue to hold) | 268.94 | 276.75 | +2.9% | Supportive long-term trend dynamics, improving momentum and favourable mean-reversion characteristics remain of interest. The stock has dipped below its 200-day SMA, while fading upside momentum is a concern. We maintain a target price of $314, and a trailing stop of $267. | 19 August 2026 |
| PLTR US - Buy (Continue to hold) | 133.72 | 132.66 | -0.8% | Price action near the lower Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) range remains noteworthy. The stock trades below its 200-day SMA, confirming a counter-trend strategy, while fading downside momentum supports the setup. We maintain a target price of $175, and a trailing stop of $124. | 30 September 2026 |
| UBER US - Buy (Continue to hold) | 72.33 | 71.55 | -1.1% | The combination of price action near the lower boundary of an ascending channel and a developing double-bottom pattern remains of interest. The stock trades below its 200-day SMA, confirming a counter-trend strategy, although fading upside momentum is a concern. We maintain a target price of $85, and a trailing stop of $69. | 11 August 2026 |
| SYK US - Buy (Continue to hold) | 329.74 | 314.58 | -4.6% | Price action near the lower boundary of an ascending linear regression channel remains of interest. The stock trades below its 200-day SMA, confirming a counter-trend strategy, although fading upside momentum remains a concern. We maintain a target price of $401 and a stop-loss of $309. | 14 October 2026 |
