By Thanda Sithole
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) marginally contracted by 0.2% y/y in August after expanding by an upwardly revised 5.1% y/y (previously 4.4% y/y) in July. The outturn was weaker than Bloomberg consensus expectations of a 1.7% y/y increase. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which is critical for quarterly GDP growth calculations, decreased by 1.2% m/m, reversing the 1.2% (previously 1.0%) monthly gain in July. In the three months to August, mining output was up by 3.3%, highlighting continued sectoral support for 3Q GDP growth, albeit likely to a lesser extent than what played out in 2Q25.
Outlook
The decline in mining output in August represents a setback amid weak economic growth and elevated global trade uncertainty. Year-to-date, output is down 1.5%, largely reflecting weakness across Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) and gold, among the major mining divisions. Prior to the latest data, mining output had shown encouraging signs of recovery over the past three months, even contributing positively to 2Q25 GDP growth. While favourable terms of trade and US tariff exemptions on certain critical minerals may offer some support, subdued external demand and persistent uncertainty are likely to keep global growth sluggish. Domestic structural reforms to improve port and rail logistics will be vital to boosting medium- to long-term mining activity.
Selected sector analysis
Seven of the twelve mining divisions recorded lower production in August, with mixed results across key divisions (see Figure 2 for all twelve divisions):
On the positive side, output gains were recorded in the iron ore and coal divisions, with iron ore expanding by 2.2% y/y and coal by 4.1%, both helping to offset some of the drag from the weaker major divisions.
