Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R16.30. We recommend a stop-loss at R12.90.
Old Mutual is the largest life insurance company in South Africa (SA) and has a dominant share in the mass foundation (lower end) and corporate markets. The group offers a wide array of financial services to individuals, corporates, and institutions across 17 countries.
Technically, the onset of Wave 5 according to Elliott Wave Price theory makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the number notation on the main chart). This suggests that the prior consolidation is ending, and the primary uptrend is resuming, with renewed buying interest and positive sentiment supporting further upside.
A supportive volume profile also underpins a constructive outlook, with a high volume node just below the current price acting as a strong area of value and support (see the insert on the main chart).
The price recently held and rebounded from the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) at R13.24, a technically constructive signal that reinforces the longer term uptrend and highlights strong underlying demand at a key institutional reference point. This support was further strengthened by its convergence with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, creating a high confidence confluence zone that increases the likelihood of stabilisation and a renewed upward move as buyers defend the broader trend.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | OMU |
| Industry | Insurance |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 62.42 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 49.56% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -4.42% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 13.69 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 17.00 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 10.00 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price has risen more than 30% over the past year, reflecting strong investor confidence and an improved performance across parts of its investment portfolio. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 1.84 | 2.10 | 2.37 | |
| Growth (%) | 14.14 | 13.10 | ||
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 0.93 | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.13 |
| Growth (%) | 8.39 | 7.24 | 4.53 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 7.44 | 6.52 | 5.77 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 7.36 | 7.90 | 8.25 | |
| Consensus forecasts reflect attractive value and income appeal, with steady earnings per share (EPS) growth and rising dividends supporting a solid total return outlook. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | REM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BOX SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
QLT SA - Close the position (Stop-loss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 181.66 | 69.99 | 41.14 |
| Current Price | 201.65 | 71.29 | 38.70 |
| Movement | +11.0% | +1.9% | -5.9% |
| Comment |
The potential onset of Elliott Wave 5 remains supportive, with the price holding above the
200-day SMA and upside momentum intact. The profit target remains R204.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R196.00. |
The price action within the Wyckoff Accumulation phase remains of interest, with the share
holding marginally above its 200-day SMA. However, downside momentum remains a concern. The profit target remains at R79.00 with a trailing stop-loss R69.20. |
The share reached the predefined stop-loss level, triggering the closure of the position. |
| Time to exit | 18 May 2026 | 4 May 2026 | 11 May 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | WBC SA - Close the position (Stop-loss) |
BTI SA - Buy (Time exit) |
MTM SA - Close the position (Stop-loss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 43.50 | 944.40 | 36.80 |
| Current Price | 39.80 | 996.00 | 34.68 |
| Movement | -8.5% | +5.5% | -5.8% |
| Comment | The share reached the predefined stop-loss level, triggering the closure of the position. | The share reached the predefined time-based exit, resulting in the position being closed in line with the trade strategy. | The share reached the predefined stop-loss level, triggering the closure of the position. |
| Time to exit | 18 May 2026 | 6 April 2026 | 22 June 2026 |
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