Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa
We enter a long position with a target price of $220 and a stop-loss of $181.
Chevron is one of the largest United States (US)-based integrated energy companies, operating across the full energy value chain, including upstream exploration and production, downstream refining and marketing, petrochemicals, transportation and growing renewable energy initiatives. The company has a diversified global footprint, with large-scale assets in shale, offshore and conventional energy regions, supported by an extensive refining and distribution network. Its broader strategy incorporates expansion into lower-carbon technologies such as hydrogen, carbon capture and renewable fuels, while earnings remain closely tied to global oil prices, refining margins and overall energy demand trends.
Chevron benefits from strong scale advantages, diversified operations and resilient cash-flow generation, which supports consistent shareholder returns.
Technically, price action in a developing Elliott wave theory price action presents an attractive buying opportunity (see the number notation on the main chart). This present two bullish scenarios: either an ongoing wave b recovery or a continuation into a broader wave 5 advance. The stock is also trading near the lower boundary of an upward-sloping linear regression channel.
The stock is also above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Weakening downside pressure on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and a rising On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator are also bullish signals.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | CVX |
| Industry | Energy |
| Market Capital (USD) | 383.72 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 48.51% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 27.64% |
| Current Price (USD) | 192.64 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 214.71 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 133.77 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price has rallied on the back on strong fundamentals which include rising free cash flow expectations, higher oil/LNG prices, and positive earnings surprises as well as analyst upgrades. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 7.29 | 13.58 | 12.37 | 12.62 |
| Growth (%) | 86.28 | -8.92 | 2.07 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 6.84 | 7.13 | 7.43 | 7.74 |
| Growth (%) | 4.25 | 4.21 | 4.10 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 14.19 | 15.58 | 15.26 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.70 | 3.86 | 4.02 | |
| Near-term earrings are expected to remain in the low teens, will dividend growth expected to remain consistent with the group maintaining an attractive yield. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | AXP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VST - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MMM - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ORLY - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 307.03 | 152.72 | 152.55 | 93.92 |
| Current Price | 315.95 | 160.38 | 145.78 | 95 |
| Movement | +2.9% | +5.0% | -4.4% | +1.1% |
| Comment |
The price testing the lower range of an upsloping inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA but fading downside momentum continues to support the strategy. Our profit target is $352 with a trailing stop-loss at $305.50. |
The price in a developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA and the trade is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Our profit target is $193, with a trailing stop-loss at $151.50. |
The price testing the lower range of an upsloping broadening top pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA and the trade is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $177, with a trailing stop-loss at $142. |
The price action within a developing falling wedge pattern remains constructive, while trading just below the 200-day SMA. Improving upside momentum supports the strategy. Our profit target remains at $109, with a trailing stop-loss at $92.50. |
| Time to exit | 8 July 2026 | 1 July 2026 | 24 June 2026 | 2 June 2026 |
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